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AO Main Draw Ladies 2021

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Re: AO Main Draw Ladies 2021

Post by Grossefavourite » Feb Thu 18, 2021 12:12 pm

Ace2Ace wrote:
Feb Thu 18, 2021 12:08 pm
I watched the replay of that exho match. It made me laugh. Naomi gave Serena that first set. But in the 2nd set, she just went for the kill and Serena couldn't do anything. Serena only won the TB. Osaka didn't give that away the way she did the first set. Just watch again. Watch Naomi's serves and ground strokes in that first set. And compare to the 2nd set. Night and Days. :) :)
So Naomi's expectation of a stronger serve was based on what? And why do you think Serena wasn't gifting/bluffing too? It's exo and I'm sure neither one wanted to get injured.

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Re: AO Main Draw Ladies 2021

Post by Ace2Ace » Feb Thu 18, 2021 12:16 pm

Grossefavourite wrote:
Feb Thu 18, 2021 12:12 pm
So Naomi's expectation of a stronger serve was based on what? And why do you think Serena wasn't gifting/bluffing too? It's exo and I'm sure neither one wanted to get injured.
Based on Serena's reputation ... the usual serve.

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Re: AO Main Draw Ladies 2021

Post by Grossefavourite » Feb Thu 18, 2021 12:19 pm

Ace2Ace wrote:
Feb Thu 18, 2021 12:16 pm
Based on Serena's reputation ... the usual serve.
Doubtful. Certain it's from playing her and reviewing the recent data/stats from her match and others.

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Re: AO Main Draw Ladies 2021

Post by Ace2Ace » Feb Thu 18, 2021 12:32 pm

same.

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Re: AO Main Draw Ladies 2021

Post by rex » Feb Thu 18, 2021 12:40 pm

Ace2Ace wrote:
Feb Wed 17, 2021 11:03 pm
Serena was no match for Osaka.. Completely outplayed.
Naomi is DanGeRous !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Serena can't hit ground strokes. Can't serve. pushing balls in front of Naomi to strike... Not good enough.
Time to call it quit. 23 slams... Plenty.
Serena at 39 is basically playing a clone of herself in Naomi at 23. They both play exactly the same.......one-dimensional baseline tennis with a serve (note the rally stats in the below link) with both continuing to be dreadful at the net. The difference is at 39 Serena cannot dictate to herself now, her serve (3 aces) cannot get her out of trouble in order to hold her service game, as Naomi did in this match when near broken, her groundstrokes have lost pace and are loopy in moments. What you see now in Serena's pressers is egoism. What I don't like about Serena's pressers is the egoism, giving no credit to Naomi for her performance today, believing that it was "her" errors that allowed Naomi to win, tho' one can see that once Naomi overcame her admitted nerves at the start of the match and tied the score at 2-2 in the lst, it was fait accompli. If they meet again Naomi's is not going to have the fear she expressed in her presser after seeing Serena in shape, dismissing the self-whipping Sabalenka and deftly handling Simona, who doesn't have the serve to dictate her game as Naomi in order to give her free points, or control a rally with minimal shots (can't explain away Serena's lackluster performance against Simona at Wimby). She'll need Naomi to have an off day from the baseline in order to win, tho' Naomi's ground game this entire event has not been proficient, needlessly over-hitting and making careless errors.

Yet, stats show that Serena's lst serve pace was equal to Naomi's, the average lst serve pace was a difference of "one" (Naomi) and Serena's 2nd serve pace was far greater. What the stats don't show is the pace of their groundstrokes, tho' one can visually see that once Naomi shook off the nerves, Serena could only watch the winners go zipping by her, tho' there weren't that many (20 for Naomi and only 12 for Serena, a player who routinely topped +50 in matches in her career). In addition, Sabalenka was dictating to Serena once she overcame lst-time-facing-Serena jitters in their match, but beating herself with wild returns, her last shot landing 30 feet off the court to lose. So, Serena can still hang in there with some of these youngsters with power, but if they are not beating themselves with reckless, wild errors in their ground games, Serena is going to lose at age 39/40.

https://ausopen.com/match/2021-naomi-os ... 602#!stats

However, Serena is still top-5 (playing more events), just as Roger is at 40 in the men's game, and she remains a threat for a Slam, but not "the" threat. In addition, she can win a Slam, but the draw would have to either fall apart, or get a Barty or Brady-type 2021 AO draw and reach the final, giving her a shot at the title. Brady's draw looks like a WTA 125k event (Bolsova, Brengle, Juvan, Vekic, Pegula and Muchova, tho' the latter I clearly don't consider a scrub). This draw was so badly lopsided that it nearly demands an investigation into rigging for the Home girl.

Now, how long Serena hangs around is unknown, for I do believe she thought she was going to win this AO, her favorite Slam, and "wanting" to win it in addition to avenging her loss to Naomi at the USO. This sudden reality check by Naomi, who is now in her prime, is hitting her hard and, emotionally, she's not able to handle the severe disappointment. She'll likely rebound emotionally, finish the year (Olympics?), then we'll see, for Venus intends to have a Kimiko Date-type career (play to age 45) who doesn't care how badly she looks on the court and not coming close to winning a title of any sort.

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Re: AO Main Draw Ladies 2021

Post by Grossefavourite » Feb Thu 18, 2021 12:44 pm

rex wrote:
Feb Thu 18, 2021 12:40 pm
Serena at 39 is basically playing a clone of herself in Naomi at 23. They both play exactly the same.......one-dimensional baseline tennis with a serve (note the rally stats in the below link) with both continuing to be dreadful at the net. The difference is at 39 Serena cannot dictate to herself now, her serve (3 aces) cannot get her out of trouble in order to hold her service game, as Naomi did in this match when near broken, her groundstrokes have lost pace and are loopy in moments. What you see now in Serena's pressers is egoism. What I don't like about Serena's pressers is the egoism, giving no credit to Naomi for her performance today, believing that it was "her" errors that allowed Naomi to win, tho' one can see that once Naomi overcame her admitted nerves at the start of the match and tied the score at 2-2 in the lst, it was fait accompli. If they meet again Naomi's is not going to have the fear she expressed in her presser after seeing Serena in shape, dismissing the self-whipping Sabalenka and deftly handling Simona, who doesn't have the serve to dictate her game as Naomi in order to give her free points, or control a rally with minimal shots (can't explain away Serena's lackluster performance against Simona at Wimby). She'll need Naomi to have an off day from the baseline in order to win, tho' Naomi's ground game this entire event has not been proficient, needlessly over-hitting and making careless errors.

Yet, stats show that Serena's lst serve pace was equal to Naomi's, the average lst pace was a difference of "one" (Naomi) and Serena's 2nd serve pace was far greater. What the stats don't show is the pace of their groundstrokes, tho' one can visually see that once Naomi shook off the nerves, Serena could only watch the winners go zipping by her, tho' there weren't that many (20 for Naomi and only 12 for Serena, a player who routinely topped +50 in matches in her career). In addition, Sabalenka was dictating to Serena once she overcame lst-time-facing-Serena jitters in their match, but beating herself with wild returns, her last shot landing 30 feet off the court to lose. So, Serena can still hang in there with some of these youngsters with power, but if they are not beating themselves with reckless, wild errors in their ground games, Serena is going to lose at age 39/40.

https://ausopen.com/match/2021-naomi-os ... 602#!stats



However, Serena is still top-5 (playing more events), just as Roger is at 40 in the men's game, and she remains a threat for a Slam, but not "the" threat. In addition, she can win a Slam, but the draw would have to either fall apart, or get a Barty or Brady-type 2021 AO draw and reach the final, giving her a shot at the title. Brady's draw looks like a WTA 125k event (Bolsova, Brengle, Juvan, Vekic, Pegula and Muchova, tho' the latter I clearly don't consider a scrub). This draw was so badly lopsided that it nearly demands an investigation into rigging for the Home girl.

Now, how long Serena hangs around is unknown, for I do believe she thought she was going to win this AO, her favorite Slam, and "wanting" to win it in addition to avenging her loss to Naomi at the USO. This sudden reality check by Naomi, who is now in her prime, is hitting her hard and, emotionally, she's not able to handle the severe disappointment. She'll likely rebound emotionally, finish the year (Olympics?), then we'll see, for Venus intends to have a Kimiko Date-type career (play to age 45) who doesn't care how badly she looks on the court and not coming close to winning a title of any sort.
She's always credited her opponents. I say cut her some slack, she's earned that. She was clearly overcome with raw emotions and could not quell them at that moment to give some credit, though she was right in her assessment of her lost chances. The 'farewell' suggestion put her over the top, as it would've anyone else in her shoes.

She had zero FH winners in the 1st set, zero. When has that ever happened?

Plus, Naomi said she hugged her afterwards and said complimentary things.

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Re: AO Main Draw Ladies 2021

Post by Ace2Ace » Feb Thu 18, 2021 1:15 pm

Serena will still lead my next skan though.... That's my lady.

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Re: AO Main Draw Ladies 2021

Post by Skilletsauce » Feb Thu 18, 2021 1:29 pm

Naomi made Serena look slow, old, helpless, and ordinary. After shaking off the nerves and recovering from 0-2 down in the first set Naomi settled in and was able to dictate with her serve and groundstrokes often getting Serena out of position and then hitting into the open court. Serena didn't help her cause any by misfiring, sometimes wildly, off her forehand wing and not serving well. She also didn't display the same movement in this match that we had seen in her previous matches, especially the side to side movement.

How she regroups here is going to be a factor and I will be keen on watching her in her next few matches. She's still quite capable of going deep in draws but actually pulling out the "W" may be a bit of a stretch at this point in her career. A lot of things will have to fall into place for a possible slam win at this stage including some divine intervention. I'm sure there will be some deep introspection and reassessing after this beating and perhaps some changes as well. It will be hard for Serena to accept that she no longer is "the" favorite at slams and that reality as well as her age is a tough pill to swallow.

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Re: AO Main Draw Ladies 2021

Post by Grossefavourite » Feb Thu 18, 2021 1:41 pm

Like Davenport said, at GS you play 2 bad matches, 2 average ones and 3 great ones to win. You just hope they happen at the 'right' time against the 'right' opponent. Serena's bad match was sadly yesterday. From the stats, Naomi was just ok.

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Re: AO Main Draw Ladies 2021

Post by Ace2Ace » Feb Thu 18, 2021 1:58 pm

Time for Patrick to go. Bring back Oracine!!!

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